NCAA Tournament March Madness
#128 Penn St
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Projection: need to automatically qualify
Penn State's résumé reads like a clear mix of harmless nonconference victories and damaging results away from home, with the program showing it can score against lesser opponents such as Fairfield, New Haven, Navy and Harvard but unable to produce a signature win against a top-tier opponent; the early neutral setback to Providence and the neutral blowout at Pittsburgh underline a vulnerability outside a friendly gym while the road collapse at Indiana and an underwhelming defensive profile have turned several Big Ten chances into liabilities. A competitive outing with Michigan State at home shows they can hang with quality teams under the right circumstances, but the lack of true quadrant-caliber road or neutral triumphs keeps the résumé thin. The remainder of the conference slate presents obvious paths to redemption and further risk, with marquee trips to Purdue, Michigan, Washington and Oregon and neutral tests against Illinois and UCLA offering opportunities for resume-changing victories while midweek and home dates against Minnesota and Rutgers are reachable wins that will be counted differently depending on where they come. Put simply, Penn State sits where it does because its best results mostly came against weak opposition, its worst defeats happened in hostile or neutral settings, and its remaining schedule contains a mix of the kind of high-value chances and low-risk games that will decide whether this profile strengthens or frays.
| Date | Opponent | Ranking | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/3 | Fairfield | 283 | W76-68 |
| 11/8 | @New Haven | 348 | W87-43 |
| 11/11 | Navy | 202 | W80-71 |
| 11/15 | (N)La Salle | 261 | W83-69 |
| 11/19 | Harvard | 182 | W84-80 |
| 11/22 | (N)Providence | 75 | L77-65 |
| 11/25 | Boston Univ | 293 | W96-87 |
| 11/29 | Sacred Heart | 286 | W90-59 |
| 12/2 | Campbell | 228 | W87-76 |
| 12/9 | @Indiana | 29 | L113-72 |
| 12/13 | Michigan St | 15 | L76-72 |
| 12/21 | (N)Pittsburgh | 90 | L80-46 |
| 12/29 | NC Central | 352 | W90-67 |
| 1/3 | (N)Illinois | 9 | 5% |
| 1/6 | Michigan | 1 | 3% |
| 1/10 | @Purdue | 4 | 2% |
| 1/14 | UCLA | 33 | 23% |
| 1/18 | @Maryland | 100 | 30% |
| 1/22 | Wisconsin | 42 | 29% |
| 1/26 | @Ohio St | 36 | 11% |
| 1/29 | @Northwestern | 55 | 17% |
| 2/1 | Minnesota | 102 | 52% |
| 2/5 | @Michigan | 1 | 1% |
| 2/8 | USC | 39 | 25% |
| 2/11 | @Washington | 49 | 15% |
| 2/14 | @Oregon | 72 | 21% |
| 2/18 | Rutgers | 159 | 69% |
| 2/21 | @Nebraska | 22 | 7% |
| 2/28 | Iowa | 18 | 16% |
| 3/4 | Ohio St | 36 | 25% |
| 3/8 | @Rutgers | 159 | 47% |